Indonesia plans to carry out B40 in January

Because case, rates may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will need extra 3 mln heaps feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil benchmark at greatest because mid-2022

India might withdraw import tax hike amidst inflation, Mistry says

(Adds expert remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard cost)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) palm oil output is forecast to recuperate in 2025 after an expected drop this year, but rates are anticipated to remain elevated due to organized growth of the country's biodiesel required, market experts said.

The palm oil benchmark rate in Malaysia has actually increased more than 35% this year, lifted by sluggish output and Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric heaps compared with an estimated drop of simply over a million heaps this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research company Oil World, said he anticipates Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million loads next year after a 2.5 million load drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is forecast to improve, supply from somewhere else and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip slightly next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million loads in 2024.

"We would require a recovery in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The price rise in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke stated, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated additional feedstock of around 3 million tons will be required for B40 implementation, wearing down export supply.

The current palm oil premium has actually already caused palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke included.

Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we need to be careful," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian customer products business Godrej International.

He forecast the Malaysian rate around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to

think about delaying

B40 execution on concern about its influence on food customers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated top palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import duty walking

imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy